Die Ausstellung „Campus Deutsche Bundesbank – Entwürfe für den neuen Campus der Zentrale der Bundesbank in Frankfurt“ dokumentiert den Abschluss des Architektenwettbewerbs und damit einen besonderen Meilenstein für das größte Bauprojekt der Deutschen Bundesbank seit ihrem Bestehen.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-28
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The current paper broadens the understanding of the role played by uncertainty in the context of macroeconomic fluctuations. It focuses on the implications of uncertainty shocks for indicators that tend to precede financial crises. In an empirical analysis we show for a set of four euro area countries that negative uncertainty shocks, while boosting economic activity, are followed by unfavorable reactions of financial crisis indicators. We conclude that standard uncertainty measures contain some useful information on the potential buildup of vulnerabilities in the financial system.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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This paper analyzes the monetary-fiscal interaction if the central bank conducts quantitative easing. Although asset purchases have similar effects on the real economy under monetary and fiscal dominance, wealth effects yield a qualitatively different response on the rate of inflation. Our results show that under fiscal dominance, unconventional monetary policy has similar effects to conventional monetary policy on inflation because these wealth effects exert downward pressure on prices. The longer the average maturity, the more volatile is the transmission of quantitative easing to the real economy.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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We introduce two types of effort into an otherwise standard labor search model to examine indeterminacy and sunspot equilibria. Variable labor effort gives rise to increasing returns to hours in production. This makes workers more valuable and contributes to self-fulfilling profit expectations, raising the likelihood of indeterminacy. Variable search effort makes workers search more intensively in a tighter labor market, which alleviates congestion and reduces the likelihood of indeterminacy. Indeterminacy disappears completely when vacancy posting costs are replaced with hiring costs.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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According to current regulation, European banks can apply zero risk weights to sovereign exposures in their balance sheet, irrespective of the assigned rating. We show that a zero risk weighting of sovereign bonds has implications by distorting banks' asset allocation decisions. Due to the lower regulatory cost of sovereign bonds, banks invest more in those bonds at the expense of lending to the real sector. To quantify the effect of this distortion, we build a standard RBC model featuring financial intermediation and a government sector calibrated to the euro area economy. Financial regulation is introduced via a penalty function that punishes banks if they deviate from the target capital ratio. We study the zero risk weight policy during normal times when there is no sovereign default risk and find that a policy introducing positive risk weights on government bonds has both long-run effects and stabilising properties with respect to the business cycle. This policy makes the steady state lending spread on loans to firms decline, stimulating investment and output. Also, it stabilises the lending spread, leading to a lower volatility of investment and output.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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This paper builds a macro model with a financial sector and a housing market to understand the transmission and effects of macroprudential instruments addressing mortgage credit. The model compares the introduction of a loan-to-value ratio (LTV), a countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB)-style rule and sectoral constraints similar to sectoral risk weights. The results show that instruments work largely as intended and are to different extents suitable to dampen credit booms. Moreover, there is a trade-off between effectiveness, i.e. the extent to which instruments are able to dampen credit booms, and efficiency, i.e. the extent to which instruments might exhibit unintended consequences for the financial sector or real economy. General shocks, where housing credit increases as a side effect of larger movements, might warrant the use of the CCyB or also sectoral risk weights to correct for sector specific developments. Simple sectoral shocks can be dealt with or responded to first with sectoral risk weights. The LTV is much more effective than sectoral risk weights in confining credit growth, but shows less efficiency due to strong substitution effects.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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From 2014 until present, housing prices in Germany have been rising faster than consumer prices in all quarters except one, raising concerns about an excessive over-heating of the housing market. To assess the vulnerability of the German housing market to a future realignment of prices or even a housing bust, this paper develops a housing price misalignment indicator that is composed of seven indicators, which are commonly associated with the fundamental value of residential property. An empirical application to the most recent data suggests that the German housing market exhibits an overvaluation of approximately 11%, where interest rate risk and a relatively advanced stage of the housing cycle are identified as the main factors fueling these imbalances, while a rather solid debt-servicing capacity mitigates these imbalances since end-2009.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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We study the implications of the Eurosystem's expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) for the bank lending business of euro area banks with euro area non-financial corporations (NFCs) using microeconometric matching techniques. Based on confidential bank-level data on quantitative balance sheet items and interest rates as well as on qualitative survey responses to the Eurosystem's Bank Lending Survey, we identify the exposure of banks to the APP and corresponding effects on loan growth. We find that the APP was effective in stimulating the lending activity with NFCs for a subset of relatively sound banks. At the same time, our results show that there is a non-negligible number of banks with less healthy balance sheets which could not transfer the APP stimulus into more lending. Instead, such banks appear to have used the APP stimulus for consolidating their balance sheets, thereby also reducing their lending business with NFCs. This confirms the importance of accounting for the large degree of heterogeneity in the euro area banking sector in analyses of the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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This paper investigates how declines in the deposit facility rate set by the ECB affect euro area banks' incentives to hold reserves at the central bank. We find that, in the face of lower deposit rates, banks with a more interest-sensitive business model are more likely to reduce reserve holdings and allocate freed-up liquidity to loans. The result is driven by wellcapitalized banks in the non-GIIPS countries of the euro area. This reveals that conventional monetary policy instruments have limited effects in restoring monetary policy transmission during times of crisis.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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The linear pool is the most popular method for combining density forecasts. We analyze the linear pool's implications concerning forecast uncertainty in a new theoretical framework that focuses on the mean and variance of each density forecast to be combined. Our results show that, if the variance predictions of the individual forecasts are unbiased, the well-known 'disagreement' component of the linear pool exacerbates the upward bias of the linear pool's variance prediction. Moreover, we find that disagreement has no predictive content for ex-post forecast uncertainty under conditions which can be empirically relevant. These findings suggest the removal of the disagreement component from the linear pool. The resulting centered linear pool outperforms the linear pool in simulations and in empirical applications to inflation and stock returns
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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We document a new stylized fact for the life-cycle behavior of consumer prices: relative to a narrowly defined set of competing products, the price of individual products tends to fall over the product lifetime. This holds true for more than 90% of the expenditure items underlying the U.K. consumer price index and has important normative implications. Constructing a sticky price model featuring a product life cycle and rich amounts of heterogeneity, we explain how the optimal in ation target can be estimated from the observed trends in relative prices. The optimal inflation target for the U.K. is found to range between 2.6% and 3.2% and to have steadily increased over the period 1996 to 2016. We show how changes in relative price trends contributed to this development.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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We estimate a panel VAR model for the euro area to quantitatively assess how the uneven recourse of national banking systems in the euro area to the ECB's unconventional refinancing operations that led to the accumulation of large TARGET2 balances, has contributed to the propagation of different types of structural economic shocks as well as to the historical evolution of aggregate economic activity in euro area member countries in the period 2008-2014. Our results suggest that the built-up of TARGET2 balances was mainly driven by capital flow shocks while being barely responsive to other aggregate shocks. Furthermore, on basis of counterfactual experiments we find that the ability to build-up sizable TARGET2 liabilities has contributed substantially to avoid deeper recessions in the distressed euro area member countries like Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal, while to a smaller extent depressing aggregate economic activity in core member states, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.
Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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Aktualisiert: 2021-01-08
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Das vierte Bargeldsymposium der Deutschen Bundesbank hat nicht nur Einblicke in
aktuelle Bargeldthemen gewährt, sondern auch als Plattform für angeregte Diskussionen
über die Zukunft des Bargelds gedient. Die Lektüre des vorliegenden Symposiumbandes
bietet Ihnen die Gelegenheit, viele Argumente dieser Diskussionen
nachzuvollziehen. Ich wage an dieser Stelle aber schon eine Prognose: Bargeld ist
ein attraktives und intensiv genutztes Zahlungsmittel in vielen Ländern und wird es
auf absehbare Zeit auch bleiben....(aus dem Vorwort)
Aktualisiert: 2020-01-29
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Aktualisiert: 2020-01-29
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Aktualisiert: 2019-01-09
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Aktualisiert: 2019-01-09
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Aktualisiert: 2019-01-09
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